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Great Time to be Apartment REIT
3/22/2011 | By Matt Bechard
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The current economic environment makes this "a great time" to be an apartment REIT, according to Mike Kelly, president and co-founder of Caldera Asset Management.
In a video interview with REIT.com at NAREIT's offices in Washington, D.C., Kelly said
multifamily REITs
shouldn't see much competition for the assets that they target.
REITs "don't have to get the debt on a property-specific asset, so they can be more strategic on what they're looking for," he said. "They can use their balance sheets to their strengths."
While foreign investors may decide to invest more money in the U.S. commercial real estate market in the next year, REITs and pension funds are likely to be the only major players in multifamily property
acquisitions
, according to Kelly. "In general, it's going to be REITs and pension funds that continue to gobble up things," he said.
Right now, the biggest risks facing the apartment market involve the remnants of debt deals completed between 2005 and 2007, Kelly said. He noted that in the next 24 months, $20 billion in commercial
mortgage-backed securities
(
CMBS
) will be maturing.
"Most of that cannot be refinanced dollar for dollar, so those assets are going to hit the street, or they will have to be recapitalized, or they will go into foreclosure," Kelly said. However, he said the majority of those assets won't appeal to
apartment REITs
.
A "mismatch" in terms of agency debt is also creating challenges for the multifamily market, according to Kelly. He pointed out that while agencies are offering "very good pricing" to lenders, they're using "in-place numbers," whereas buyers are looking to the future.
"You have to bring a whole lot more equity to the table," Kelly said.
Kelly also discussed the location of the major deals being done in the
apartment sector
. He pointed out that in 2010, 40 percent of transactions took place in the top 15 markets in the U.S. The focus on large locales means sellers in smaller markets are struggling to move their properties.
"In some markets, there are no buyers," Kelly said. "There are no buyers right now in C assets in general if you get outside the top 10 markets."
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