Green Street Sees Senior Housing Demand Picking Up in the 2020s

Lukas Hartwich, senior analyst at Green Street Advisors, joined Nareit in New York for a video interview at REITweek: 2019 Investor Conference.

Hartwich noted that the senior housing industry has been facing a demand headwind due to the fewer number of children born during the Great Depression era.

“We do expect demand to start to move up in the 2020’s as the baby boomer cohort hits that 80 plus age,” Hartwich said.

Meanwhile, supply conditions have been difficult for the last few years, Hartwich noted. Developers were “a little bit ahead of the curve so we’ve been facing supply pressure,” he said. Supply pressure will continue this year but should start to ease next year, he said. Supply growth should start to increase again in the 2020s in anticipation of the coming demand wave from baby boomers.

Hartwich also said senior housing assets are “attractively priced” in the private market and are priced “closer to fair” in the public market.