Nareit and Bloomberg Intelligence co-hosted a Jan. 22 webinar examining the outlook for REITs in 2026 amid macro uncertainty, policy crosscurrents, and uneven sector performance. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Jeff Langbaum and Lindsay Dutch moderated the discussion with insights from John Worth of Nareit; Eric Rothman of CenterSquare Investment Management; and Gina Szymanski of AEW.
Langbaum opened by framing the year ahead as one defined by volatility: “Between legislative and regulatory pressures and tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainty and interest rates and geopolitics, there’s a lot of variability and volatility impacting the broader market—and REITs specifically.”
Dutch said that the panel would move from the macro backdrop into property-type fundamentals and investor positioning, highlighting how policy and rates have increasingly shaped sentiment across the listed real estate market.
Worth began with a look back at 2025 and early 2026 performance. He noted that REIT operational metrics held up even as equity returns lagged broader markets, underscoring the disconnect many investors have felt. As he described in Nareit’s 2026 REIT Outlook, the market is now grappling with what he called “dual divergences”—between REITs and broader equities, and between public REIT and private real estate valuations—arguing that “we really view this as a year where we’re likely to see one or both of these divergences converge.” Worth also pointed to REIT balance sheet strength and consistent access to debt markets as a foundation for renewed capital markets activity, potentially including more issuance as valuations recover.
Rothman discussed the administration’s focus on housing affordability and institutional ownership, noting that single-family rental REITs are a small slice of the overall REIT universe but face heightened scrutiny: “It’s negative…but it’s not catastrophic.”
He emphasized that business models have evolved away from large-scale buying in the MLS and toward build-to-rent development, and he suggested the sector’s broader impact should remain limited. Rothman also argued that what matters most for REITs isn’t simply the level of rates, but the pace and predictability of change, adding that a more stable rate environment helps decisionmakers move forward with leasing, development, and transactions.
Szymanski echoed that sentiment, emphasizing that growth can offset a higher-for-longer backdrop if fundamentals cooperate. “If we have accelerating growth…that can often dwarf any impact of higher interest rates,” she said, pointing to improving supply-demand dynamics in select sectors and the importance of stable rates for valuations.
Szymanski also discussed retail resilience, particularly in shopping centers with necessity- and service-based tenants; and highlighted the continued appeal of public-to-private arbitrage as long as valuation gaps persist. On housing, she offered a personal perspective on the value of stable rental options for families, describing the institutional single-family rental model as one that can support household stability even amid the broader affordability debate.
Across the conversation, panelists returned to the idea that listed real estate may be positioned for a more constructive 2026, supported by strong balance sheets, evolving supply-demand conditions, and the potential for valuation gaps to narrow as fundamentals and capital markets activity reassert themselves.
The discussion concluded with a look at office, multifamily, and investor positioning. Rothman said return-to-office trends are beginning to translate into real leasing momentum, as tenants “upgrade their space” and move into newer, highly amenitized buildings typically owned by REITs, supporting rent growth in major markets. Szymanski was more cautious on multifamily, noting that while public REIT valuations remain deeply discounted to private market values, limited near-term growth makes 2026 a more challenging year for the sector despite attractive risk-reward dynamics.
Addressing audience questions, Worth said the unusually long divergence between public and private real estate valuations reflects differing speeds of repricing rather than changes in ownership. Asked to name the key driver for 2026, Rothman and Szymanski pointed to supply and supply-demand balance, while Worth emphasized growth as essential to improved REIT performance.