The Market Commentary blog on reit.com presents analysis of the macro- and micro-economic fundamentals impacting the REIT and commercial real estate industry. The Nareit economics team offers their commentary on the state of the market, the outlook for commercial real estate and breaking macroeconomic news. The opinions set forth here are solely those of its author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Nareit or its membership.
REITs and Interest Rates: A Positive Shift in the Market
The relationship between REIT returns and long-term interest rates has turned positive again.
REIT Earnings Slowed in Q4 2018
REIT earnings slowed a bit in late 2018, according to the Nareit T-Tracker®, which showed funds from operations (FFO) of all listed equity REITs of $15.9 billion.
Fundamentals for REITs and Real Estate are Stronger than the Mixed Macro News
The outlook for REITs and commercial real estate remains favorable, despite some mixed macroeconomic news in the early months of this year.
What’s Ahead for Cap Rates and Interest Rates?
One of the most critical issues for real estate investors in the year ahead is the outlook for cap rates and property prices, especially with Federal Reserve policy in the spotlights. In addition to the future path for their target for short-term interest rates, Fed officials have also been discussing policy options concerning their securities holdings.
REIT Property Sectors: Total Return and Diversification Over Short- and Long-term Horizons
REITs have delivered a long-term total return to investors that generally matches and often beats broad market aggregates.
Commercial Property Prices Edged Higher in 2018
Commercial property prices edged higher in 2018, increasing 1.8 percent over one year earlier.
REITs Start 2019 on a Strong Note
January was the strongest monthly performance for REITs since October 2011.
Demand for Commercial Real Estate Shows No Signs of Slowing
Commercial real estate markets maintained momentum through the end of 2018, as net absorption continued at a high level across major property types.
Update on the Government Shutdown and REITs
In terms of information about the economy, the retail sales report for December and business inventories report for November were early casualties, as these releases planned for Jan 16th were delayed due to the Census Bureau being shuttered by the lack of funding.
Downside Beta and Upside Beta: REITs Have Generally Protected Against Stock Market Declines
REITs have generally protected against stock market declines, with downside beta typically well below one; moreover, their upside beta has usually been higher, giving investors a chance to “have it both ways.”
In the Wake of Stock Market Turmoil: Returns, Volatility, Correlation, Beta, Diversification Benefits, and Forward Expectations for REITs
December 2018 was bitter for investors. Total returns in the broad REIT market were -7.73 percent—but that was good news compared with large-cap stocks (-9.03 percent according to the S&P 500), small-cap stocks (-11.88 percent for the Russell 2000) and especially small-cap value stocks (-12.09 percent).
The Government Shutdown, Financial Markets and REITs
The government appears to be settling in for an extended partial shutdown, at least as of January 2. If the shutdown persists beyond the next few days, however, the closure of several key agencies that produce statistics on the U.S. economy could begin to have an impact on financial markets, including REITs.