Market Analysis & Research

Despite the bumps in the road ahead, the issue of a strong recovery is no longer “if” but “when”.

REITs are up more than 20% so far this year, as of June 4.

REITs rose last week, with a total return of 2.0% on the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs Index

As of May 21, which marks 15 months since the market peak prior to the pandemic, REIT total returns have fully recovered from the initial losses in early 2020.

REITs have reduced their reliance on borrowings, which lowered leverage ratios considerably over the past decade.

The increases came even as broader markets edged slightly lower, as seen in the negative 0.3% return on the Russell 1000.

The recovery in REIT earnings from declines early in the pandemic continued in the first quarter of 2021, according to data recently released in the Nareit T-Tracker®.

The growing use of target-date funds (TDFs) remains the dominant investment-related trend in the defined contribution and individual retirement account markets, and REITs continued to be a critical component of TDFs in 2020.

Residential REITs edged up 0.1%, but all other property sectors were in the red.

Real estate rents and values tend to increase when prices do, due in part to the fact that many leases are tied to inflation. This supports REIT dividend growth and provides a reliable stream of income even during inflationary periods.

The two biggest factors for the outlook for long-term interest rates (which have the most direct impact on commercial real estate markets) are economic growth and the likelihood that such growth will lift inflation higher.

April and early May capital markets activity was highlighted by the announcement of three large REIT mergers. So far in 2021, U.S. REITs have raised over $26 billion in IPOs and secondary debt and equity offerings.