Macroeconomic fundamentals

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) declined to raise short-term interest rates at its September policy meeting, citing concerns about the potential impact of weaker global growth and financial market turmoil on U.S. economic conditions. It is clear, however, that the days are numbered before the FOMC embarks on the path to higher interest rates; the latest decision merely delays the inevitable. What, then, is the likely impact on the REIT sector of eventual shift to higher interest rates?

The apartment sector enjoys solid demand in the face of moderate increases in supply of new units. This has kept vacancy rates extremely low—4.2% for two quarters running, which indicates little (if any) excess supply. Rent growth perked up again in Q2, to a 4.7% annual rate. 

Prices of commercial real estate are rising rapidly, spurred in part by an influx of foreign money. As a result, cap rates have declined to historically low levels. Have prices risen too rapidly? What are the risks of a sharp correction in the months and quarters ahead, especially as the Federal Reserve contemplates an increase in short-term interest rates?

The demand for rental housing shows no signs of letting up. Data through mid-year show that the rental market continues to tighten despite increasing new supply, as the national rental vacancy rate fell to 6.8%, the first time it has been below 7% since 1985.

Tracing the building momentum in the commercial real estate market.

If good things come in threes, then the housing market is right on track—and that’s good news for REITs and commercial real estate, too. Sales of new homes, sales of existing homes and house prices are all on an uptrend. New home sales increased 2.2% in May and are nearly 20% above a year earlier.

We often get questions about where we are in the cycle. REITs and real estate are tied closely to the macro economy’s turns through expansion and recession. While the crystal ball is never very clear about the medium-term outlook, we can make several statements about recession risks. 

New construction of multifamily housing units slowed a bit in May from April’s torrid pace, yet remained on a rising trend. Multifamily housing starts were at an annualized rate of 349,000 units, down 18.5% from April but still well above the 300,000 unit trend that had been in place for the decade or so prior to the Great Recession. 

Nearly every property sector for REITs & commercial real estate depends on sustained growth of jobs, incomes and consumer spending to drive occupancy and rent growth. The latest data indicate that the recovery in the fundamentals for REITs & real estate remains on track, despite several setbacks during the winter and early spring.

Builders took advantage of spring weather and broke ground on 389,000 (annualized) multifamily units in April, a 32% increase from March. After a long and snowy winter season kept many new projects on hold, the strong uptrend in construction from the past several years appears to be underway again.

April non-farm payrolls and unemployment numbers offer encouragement that the labor market is regaining momentum after a weak show in March. The job market added 223,000 jobs in April, matching its 2014 trend and outpacing average growth in 2015 Q1. Further, the unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, its lowest level post-recession. 

Construction spending fell nearly 60 bps to a seasonally adjusted $966.6 billion in March, its lowest level in six months. Following a flat reading in February, growth in construction spending slowed to a 2% annual rate in March.