Market Commentary

If good things come in threes, then the housing market is right on track—and that’s good news for REITs and commercial real estate, too. Sales of new homes, sales of existing homes and house prices are all on an uptrend. New home sales increased 2.2% in May and are nearly 20% above a year earlier.

We often get questions about where we are in the cycle. REITs and real estate are tied closely to the macro economy’s turns through expansion and recession. While the crystal ball is never very clear about the medium-term outlook, we can make several statements about recession risks. 

New construction of multifamily housing units slowed a bit in May from April’s torrid pace, yet remained on a rising trend. Multifamily housing starts were at an annualized rate of 349,000 units, down 18.5% from April but still well above the 300,000 unit trend that had been in place for the decade or so prior to the Great Recession. 

Nearly every property sector for REITs & commercial real estate depends on sustained growth of jobs, incomes and consumer spending to drive occupancy and rent growth. The latest data indicate that the recovery in the fundamentals for REITs & real estate remains on track, despite several setbacks during the winter and early spring.

Real estate values and total returns retreated slightly in May, with assets in the West region of the U.S. outperforming holdings in other parts of the country.

The T-Tracker Series contains a wealth of information that should prove useful to virtually anyone who invests, analyzes or researches REITs and real estate. Detailed tables on FFO, NOI and Dividends Paid by property type, as well as spreadsheets with historical data, are available.

Builders took advantage of spring weather and broke ground on 389,000 (annualized) multifamily units in April, a 32% increase from March. After a long and snowy winter season kept many new projects on hold, the strong uptrend in construction from the past several years appears to be underway again.

Total returns from a passively managed investment in the broad listed U.S. equity REIT market averaged 11.46% per year over the 20 years ending April 2015, substantially better than the broad stock market at just 9.50% per year.  

Total returns from a passively managed investment in listed U.S. equity REITs averaged 11.45% per year over the 25 years ending April 2015, compared to just 9.95% per year for large-cap U.S. stocks. 

Some market participants may be concerned about the future course of stock prices, but the correlation between listed REITs and the broad stock market is at its lowest level in more than 12 years, suggesting that whatever factors happen to drive the non-REIT part of the market will not necessarily spill over to affect the REIT market.

April non-farm payrolls and unemployment numbers offer encouragement that the labor market is regaining momentum after a weak show in March. The job market added 223,000 jobs in April, matching its 2014 trend and outpacing average growth in 2015 Q1. Further, the unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, its lowest level post-recession. 

Construction spending fell nearly 60 bps to a seasonally adjusted $966.6 billion in March, its lowest level in six months. Following a flat reading in February, growth in construction spending slowed to a 2% annual rate in March.