REIT Market Commentary

Is the Real Estate Market Cycle In its Late Stages? (No.)

I think it’s very difficult to make any thoughtful (let alone empirically based) case for predicting that the current real estate market cycle is nearing its end.  The evidence simply isn’t there. Read More

Public/Private Valuation Gaps Starts to Close with Strength in Exchange-Traded REITs and Weakness in Private Transactions

Will the gap be closed through underperformance in what may be an overvalued private real estate market, overperformance in what seems very clearly to be an undervalued listed REIT market, or a little of both? Read More

REITs Leading the Sustainability Movement Among Commercial Real Estate

The movement towards more sustainable practices continues with commercial real estate, and REITs are helping lead the charge.  Read More

What’s the Outlook for New Construction? A Peak at REIT Development Pipelines in Q4

The $64 million question in commercial real estate today is whether or not the sector is past its peak and headed for a slowdown. Read More

Equity REITs Post 7.4 Percent Gain in FFO in 2016

Equity REITs reported a 7.4 percent gain in funds from operations in the fourth quarter, according to recently-released T-Tracker® data. Read More

Valuing Mortgage REITs: Exactly How Enticing Should a >10% Dividend Yield Be?

The headline for the Mortgage REIT industry is a big one: the dividends paid by exchange-traded Mortgage REITs yield 10.54%, on average, as of the beginning of February 2017.  Read More

Comparing Real Estate Values in the Liquid and Illiquid Markets

There’s a persistent, predictable relationship between the liquid and illiquid real estate markets: private-side real estate valuations respond more slowly to changes in market conditions than do public-side valuations, so the values in private, illiquid markets typically lag public market values by two to five quarters on average, depending on whether participants in private markets are evaluating market conditions by looking at completed transactions or at property appraisals.  Correcting for that lag can give you a pretty good sense of whether a public/private arbitrage opportunity has arisen. Read More

REITs and Interest Rates: Myths and Markets

Here’s the myth: an increase in interest rates is bad for real estate investors.  Here’s the empirical fact: the historical evidence shows that real estate investors—at least those who invest through exchange-traded REITs—have usually done better during rising-rate environments than when interest rates were declining. Read More

Using Market Signals to Predict REIT Outperformance Relative to non-REIT Stocks

It may be surprising to many investors to learn that the same data they may use to value exchange-traded Equity REITs can also be used as a tactical signal for shifting capital between REITs and non-REIT stocks. Read More

Valuing REITs in 2017: Stock Price Premium/Discount to Net Asset Value

The price-to-NAV spread estimated at the end of 2016 suggests that total returns on exchange-traded Equity REITs would average about 13.6% per year over the next five years.  Read More

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