REITs invest in the majority of real estate property types, including offices, apartment buildings, warehouses, retail centers, medical facilities, data centers, cell towers and hotels.
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When assessing the outlook for REITs and commercial real estate in 2022 and beyond, it is helpful to distinguish between impermanent or cyclical effects and the longer-term structural changes that result from changes in behavior.
Though REITs have not been immune to capital market uncertainty and mortgage market turmoil, they continue to have sound operations, solid balance sheets, and successful equity and unsecured debt issuances in the capital markets.
With strong operational performance and balance sheets, REITs are well-positioned to navigate economic and market uncertainty in 2023.
Heading into a period of slower growth, high inflation, and significantly higher interest rates, we see REITs as well positioned for strong relative performance and stability.
With everyday life upended by the coronavirus for the foreseeable future, the commercial real estate industry is shifting on a daily basis.
At the beginning of 2018 REITs were undervalued and poised for outperformance. At the end of the year both statements were still true—but less so, because the outperformance has begun.
An increase in interest rates might be cause for concern if it were predicted to come with no accompanying increase in net operating income—but it’s those changes in net operating income, not the interest rates themselves, that should attract the closest attention of investors in any equity asset such as real estate.
With inflation remaining at 40-year highs, interest rates escalating, and economic growth contracting, the U.S. economy is in a precarious state.
Here’s the myth: an increase in interest rates is bad for real estate investors. Here’s the empirical fact: the historical evidence shows that real estate investors—at least those who invest through exchange-traded REITs—have usually done better during rising-rate environments than when interest rates were declining.
The U.S. commercial real estate market is amid an uncoupling. Property operational performance has generally been strong for both public and private real estate, but valuation metrics and total returns have diverged.
This is a guest commentary written by Annie Xiao, portfolio manager at the Employee Retirement System of Texas (Texas ERS).
I think it’s very difficult to make any thoughtful (let alone empirically based) case for predicting that the current real estate market cycle is nearing its end. The evidence simply isn’t there.
In today’s economy, the pace of inflation has moderated, economic growth has remained healthy, the unemployment rate has held steady, the prospects of recession have lessened, and expectations for continued monetary policy easing have proliferated.
Rising interest rates worry real estate investors. Their fears are rooted in the view that interest rate increases will result in rising cap rates and, all else being equal, declining property values.
Commercial property performance and valuation metrics diverge from time to time.
Historical data show that, on average, real estate has enjoyed solid total returns across different interest rate regimes with REITs consistently outperforming their private market counterparts.