- 2021 Midyear Outlook for REITs and Commercial Real Estate: A Robust Recovery Ahead
Funds from operations (FFO) of all equity REITs rose 2.0% in Q1, according to the Nareit T-Tracker, after having grown more than 10% in each of the prior two quarters. In large part, this deceleration reflects the wide range of outcomes across different property types discussed above. The underlying economic fundamentals for commercial real estate are gaining more momentum with a higher level of vaccine coverage, which is likely to boost REIT earnings growth over the remainder of this year.
- Percentage of American Households Owning REIT Stocks Nearly Doubles Since 2001
This research estimates the number of Americans and American households that own REIT stocks annually over the period 2001 to 2019. Roughly 65 million Americans owned REIT shares in 2001, this more than doubled to nearly 145 million Americans that owned REIT shares in 2019. The percentage of American households with REIT stocks has also nearly doubled from 23% to 44% through the last two decades.
- 2021 Outlook for REITs and Commercial Real Estate: Risk and Resilience
Commercial real estate and REITs are likely to begin to recover in 2021, with the pace of improvement driven by the availability and effectiveness of a vaccine. REITs, CRE markets, and the economy as a whole are bolstered by the solid fundamentals that were in place when the pandemic hit, in sharp contrast to prior recessions. Conditions will be mixed in the first half of the year, strengthen in the second half, and 2022 is likely to see a more complete recovery.
- 145 Million Americans Own REIT Stocks
This research note estimates the number of American households and Americans living in them that own REIT stocks directly or indirectly through mutual funds, ETFs or target date funds. We estimate that approximately 145 million Americans, or roughly 44% of American households, are invested in REIT stocks.
- REIT Industry September 2020 Rent Collections
This update focuses on three property subsectors: apartments, free standing retail, and shopping center retail, given that rent collections in the industrial, office, and healthcare sectors have stabilized at high levels.
- Fall 2020 Economic Outlook for REITs and Commercial Real Estate
The COVID-19 pandemic may cause long-lasting or permanent structural changes in how people interact in public spaces. Since most economic activity takes place within a commercial real estate structure, these changes will impact how people use commercial real estate in the future.
- How REITs Deliver Access to the New Economy
Investing in a 21st century real estate completion portfolio with REITs from tech-related property sectors can reduce the overall volatility of portfolio returns.
- The Economy at a Turning Point: REITs and Commercial Real Estate Outlook at Mid-Year 2020
The economy is at a turning point, with labor markets, consumer spending and business activity likely starting to recover in May or June. Nareit economist Calvin Schnure discusses the outlook and sees both risks and opportunities in the path ahead.
- The Outlook for REITs During the COVID-19 Crisis
The impact of the social distancing and business closures varies widely across real estate and REIT sectors, and for some, the effects are severe. The REIT sector overall entered the COVID-19 crisis from a stronger position than in previous market downturns, in terms of operational performance, balance sheet strength and sources of liquidity available for the potentially lean months ahead.
- 2020 Outlook for the Economy, Real Estate and REITs: What to Look for in Uncharted Waters
A wide range of indicators from GDP, labor markets, housing markets and commercial real estate are consistent with continued economic growth and improving real estate markets and REIT earnings in 2020.
- Economy and CRE Markets Slowing Back to Trend in Second Half of 2019
Economic growth in the first half of the year wasn’t great, but was probably better than most had expected at the start of the year, and commercial real estate markets and REITs benefited from the growing economy. Nareit economist Calvin Schnure provides his analysis of the outlook for the rest of the year in this economic outlook.
- 2019:Q4 Commercial Property Update
Commercial property markets cooled off a bit in the final quarter of 2019, with vacancy rates edging higher and rent growth slowing. Retail property markets in particular saw slack demand, although industrial property markets slowed a bit as well. Conditions in apartment markets remain tight and rents are high. Economic fundamentals for CRE were firm through year-end, but the coronavirus raises new questions about 2020. REITs, and commercial property markets in general, have been resilient to prior shocks from abroad due to the domestic nature of real estate. The growing likelihood of dislocations inside the country, however, suggest no sector will escape unscathed.
- Estimating the Size of the Commercial Real Estate Market in the U.S.
Nareit estimates that the 2018 total dollar value of commercial real estate was between $14 and $17 trillion, with a mid-point of $16 trillion. This study was conducted primarily using data from CoStar and other sources.”
- mREIT White Paper
The mREIT sector has grown rapidly in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), and the composition of the sector has changed as well. This Nareit White Paper provides background on the sector and how it has evolved. Key findings include that mREITs helped stabilize and recapitalize the home mortgage sector following the GFC by raising $76 billion of equity capital and investing in both Agency and non-Agency MBS.
- REITs and Real Estate Outlook for 2018
The macroeconomy and real estate markets had a good performance in 2017. Real GDP rebounded to annualized growth rates above 3.0 percent in the second and third quarters. Commercial properties in most markets enjoyed sustained growth of demand, high occupancy rates, rising rents and rising prices. These advantageous conditions may well continue into 2018, but there are several risks that might cause a change in the outlook.
- Economic Fundamentals for Office Properties and Shifts in REIT Portfolios from 2007-2017
A Nareit research paper by Alexandra Thompson examines office property markets. The analysis finds that office REITs have increased their holdings within secondary cities since 2012, in order to benefit from robust population and employment growth, and increase returns for investors.
- What Can Past Real Estate Construction Cycles Tell Us About the Outlook For REITs Today?
Commercial real estate has gone through many boom/bust cycles in the past. These cycles have inevitably affected the performance of REITs through their impact on rents, vacancy rates and property valuations. There are certain features that are common to nearly all these cycles, including overbuilding and a relaxation of risk standards by builders, lenders and investors. There are also differences across these cycles, however, much as Tolstoy wrote in Anna Karenina, “each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”
- In the Middle of a Long Cycle for REITs and Real Estate
Many analysts and policymakers have pointed to the leveling off in commercial real estate prices and increasing construction to contend that the commercial real estate bull market, which began in 2009, is growing old and nearing its peak. Nareit economist Calvin Schnure disagrees, noting that "economic expansions don't die of old age. They end if they overheat, are overbuilt or overleveraged.” Schnure has done an analysis showing none of these three terminal conditions exists today.
- REITs: Real Estate With a Return Premium
A Nareit analysis of the performance of publicly traded equity REITs and private equity core, value-added and opportunistic funds over the last full real estate cycle shows REITs outperformed private equity real estate funds over the entire cycle, as well as over the bull market portion of the cycle when value-added and opportunistic funds’ higher leverage would have been expected to deliver superior returns.