In the Middle of a Long Cycle for REITs and Real Estate
Many analysts and policymakers have pointed to the leveling off in commercial real estate prices and increasing construction to contend that the commercial real estate bull market, which began in 2009, is growing old and nearing its peak. NAREIT economist Calvin Schnure disagrees, noting that "economic expansions don't die of old age. They end if they overheat, are overbuilt or overleveraged.” Schnure has done an analysis showing none of these three terminal conditions exists today.
2017:Q2 Commercial Property Update
Apartment markets firmed in the second quarter, as net absorption rebounded during the spring leasing season. Demand for office and retail space was slightly behind new construction, leading to an uptick in vacancies. Economic fundamentals were solid, with GDP growth returning to trend.
REITs and Real Estate: Outlook for 2017
This January 2017 report from Brad Case, senior vice president for research and industry information, and Calvin Schnure, senior vice president for research and economic analysis, focuses on the outlook for REITs and real estate in the year ahead, including the macroeconomic environment, operating conditions in property markets as the real estate cycle enters its eighth year, likely Fed policies in 2017, and what current share price valuations may tell us about where we stand and what to expect in the market for equity real estate investment returns.
REITs: Real Estate With a Return Premium
A NAREIT analysis of the performance of publicly traded equity REITs and private equity core, value-added and opportunistic funds over the last full real estate cycle shows REITs outperformed private equity real estate funds over the entire cycle, as well as over the bull market portion of the cycle when value-added and opportunistic funds’ higher leverage would have been expected to deliver superior returns.